Purpose & Goals
The DAWG Demand Forecasting Subgroup or “pup” provides a forum to share and discuss methodology, input data assumptions, and policy assumptions related to electricity and natural gas demand forecasts in California. The forum is meant to be a catalyst for improving the quality, comprehensiveness, and transparency of demand forecasts and related data inputs, particularly those forecasts presented and/or discussed during the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) process, and to better integrate these forecasts into resource planning decisions.
Specific Goals for the 2014-2015 IEPR Cycle
- Continued discussion of hybrid econometric-end use modeling framework.
- More sophisticated modeling of peak demand (e.g., extreme value distributions). Discussion and comparisons of weather normalization process.
- Additional incorporation of climate change within demand forecasts. Includes agricultural and water pumping sectors. Investigation of the potential impact of climate change on temperature variability.
- Expanded study of transportation and other electrification potential.
- Investigation of the availability/development of energy efficiency load shapes as well as the impact on system and end-use load shapes of other demand side measures.
- Development of confidence intervals/uncertainty bands for demand forecasts. Application of these results within the IEPR forecasting process.
- The procurement/resource process and safeguarding against inaccurate forecasts. Ramifications of inaccurate or biased forecasts.
General Topic Areas & Activities
Key Demand Forecasting Subgroup topic areas and activities include:
- Changes/upgrades in 2013 IEPR forecast
- Appropriate scenarios (econ/demo and otherwise) for the 2013 IEPR forecast
- Comparison of current forecasting techniques used by the CEC, utilities, and other stakeholders, including methodologies and key drivers
- Comparison of CEC forecast results to utility and other forecasts
- Identification of new/alternative forecasting techniques that may be relevant but not in widespread use
- Pros and cons of a Common Forecasting Methodology
- Incorporating uncertainty more fully in demand forecasts, including uncertainty related to energy efficiency and distributed generation (DG) impacts
- Identification of economic/demographic trends within a service area that may affect energy consumption
- Energy market activities that may affect future electricity and natural gas use, including transportation electrification
- Provide input to the CEC’s Demand Model Methodology Evaluation (DMME) effort Techniques and assumptions for incorporating climate change in demand forecasts
- Integration of modeling results that use different techniques (e.g., integrating results from econometric forecast with savings from end use models)
- Creation and maintenance of a standardized forecasting glossary of terms
- Ensuring consistency between estimated historical energy savings and projected savings
- Integration of a more comprehensive, consumption-based approach to measuring energy savings into demand forecasts
- Methods for weather adjustment and accounting for extreme weather events in demand forecasts
- Data collection efforts for data used in demand forecasting
- Continuity over time (including clarification to changes in methodologies, assumptions, techniques or inputs that render notable changes over time)
- Reflecting demand-side resources in forecasts, in particular energy efficiency and distributed generation.
- Special topics may include:
- Compilation of historical impacts
- “Rebound,” naturally occurring conservation, price effects
- Attribution of impacts to specific interventions or entities.