Demand Forecasting

Demand Forecasting

Purpose & Goals

The DAWG Demand Forecasting Subgroup or “pup” provides a forum to share and discuss methodology, input data assumptions, and policy assumptions related to electricity and natural gas demand forecasts in California. The forum is meant to be a catalyst for improving the quality, comprehensiveness, and transparency of demand forecasts and related data inputs, particularly those forecasts presented and/or discussed during the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) process, and to better integrate these forecasts into resource planning decisions.

Specific Goals for the 2014-2015 IEPR Cycle

  • Continued discussion of hybrid econometric-end use modeling framework.
  • More sophisticated modeling of peak demand (e.g., extreme value distributions). Discussion and comparisons of weather normalization process.
  • Additional incorporation of climate change within demand forecasts. Includes agricultural and water pumping sectors. Investigation of the potential impact of climate change on temperature variability.
  • Expanded study of transportation and other electrification potential.
  • Investigation of the availability/development of energy efficiency load shapes as well as the impact on system and end-use load shapes of other demand side measures.
  • Development of confidence intervals/uncertainty bands for demand forecasts. Application of these results within the IEPR forecasting process.
  • The procurement/resource process and safeguarding against inaccurate forecasts. Ramifications of inaccurate or biased forecasts.

General Topic Areas & Activities

Key Demand Forecasting Subgroup topic areas and activities include:

  • Changes/upgrades in 2013 IEPR forecast
  • Appropriate scenarios (econ/demo and otherwise) for the 2013 IEPR forecast
  • Comparison of current forecasting techniques used by the CEC, utilities, and other stakeholders, including methodologies and key drivers
  • Comparison of CEC forecast results to utility and other forecasts
  • Identification of new/alternative forecasting techniques that may be relevant but not in widespread use
  • Pros and cons of a Common Forecasting Methodology
  • Incorporating uncertainty more fully in demand forecasts, including uncertainty related to energy efficiency and distributed generation (DG) impacts
  • Identification of economic/demographic trends within a service area that may affect energy consumption
  • Energy market activities that may affect future electricity and natural gas use, including transportation electrification
  • Provide input to the CEC’s Demand Model Methodology Evaluation (DMME) effort Techniques and assumptions for incorporating climate change in demand forecasts
  • Integration of modeling results that use different techniques (e.g., integrating results from econometric forecast with savings from end use models)
  • Creation and maintenance of a standardized forecasting glossary of terms
  • Ensuring consistency between estimated historical energy savings and projected savings
  • Integration of a more comprehensive, consumption-based approach to measuring energy savings into demand forecasts
  • Methods for weather adjustment and accounting for extreme weather events in demand forecasts
  • Data collection efforts for data used in demand forecasting
  • Continuity over time (including clarification to changes in methodologies, assumptions, techniques or inputs that render notable changes over time)
  • Reflecting demand-side resources in forecasts, in particular energy efficiency and distributed generation.
  • Special topics may include:
    • Compilation of historical impacts
    • “Rebound,” naturally occurring conservation, price effects
    • Attribution of impacts to specific interventions or entities.